Contingency planning

Got an e-mail asking "What if Bush wins?"

I replied that I will be spending the next several days working very hard to make sure that is only a hypothetical question -- but it does require some thought. After all, one of the reasons that this president does not deserve a second term is his failure/refusal to plan for contingencies other than his hoped for best-case scenarios.

There would be a kind of justice or karmic aptness to leaving Bush in office and forcing him to deal with some of the consequences of the messes he has made. If my primary motivation were the irrational, knee-jerk Bush hatred that supposedly motivates his opponents, then I would want to see him sentenced to another four years and let him suffer the consequences. But the country would suffer more than he would -- and the country, we the people and our future, are my primary concern. We cannot afford four more years of this president -- much that is good about America cannot survive four more years of this president. (As William Gibson recently wrote, "This is an election in which to vote for the greater likelihood of there being more elections in the future.")

But what of the question? What if Bush wins (or, you know, gets reappointed)?

I will take comfort and inspiration from "the letter that Jeremiah the prophet sent from Jerusalem unto the residue of the elders which were carried away captives," as recounted in Jeremiah chapter 29:

Build houses and settle down; plant gardens and eat what they produce. ... Increase in number there; do not decrease. Also, seek the peace and prosperity of the city to which I have carried you into exile. Pray to the Lord for it, because if it prospers, you too will prosper. ...

Yes, this is what the Lord Almighty, the God of Israel, says: "Do not let the prophets and diviners among you deceive you. Do not listen to the dreams you encourage them to have. They are prophesying lies to you in my name. I have not sent them," declares the Lord. ... "For I know the plans I have for you ... plans to prosper you and not to harm you, plans to give you hope and a future."

Dig in and plan for the long-term. Plant gardens. Plant trees. Pray for the peace of the city. Increase in number.

And work like hell to take back Congress in 2006.

Comments

[alan]

I'm sorry. I just can't take it. I can't endure another 4 years of this. I never had to take anti-depressant drug before that . . . creature took the White House, and I don't think there's enough Celexa or Pacil in this country to help me endure another term. I've already sent off for information on Canadian citizenship and employment opportunities, and if the American people choose fascism (or even an electoral majority of them), then I will matriculate with the 2006 class of the University of Vancouver School of Law and then head out to New Zealand asap. I hope it doesn't come to this, but I'm not one to denigrate the "patriotism" of jews who were wise enough to get out of Germany in 1933.

[Patrick J. Mullins]

I suppose you are saying we should have more babies? If you weren't working so hard for Kerry, I'd think it was a lot worse than schizophrenia. Who the hell wants to hear about gardens, trees, and increased population in a nation which may or may not prove its essential stupidity on Tuesday--or in the follow-ups? Frank Rich pointed out the 'short attention span of Americans' this week, and that is the absolute fact. All we find out from this election is how fast this attention span gets even shorter.

Alan--even I have a weird contingency plan, however less dramatic than yours, for what to do in the short term if Bush wins. I have a reservation for my winter vacation to a place that will require some work,since I don't know it so well--which is what I usually like on a trip. However, if Bush wins, I'm going to another place where I know exactly what the room is, what the bed is, how the city goes. We will all need anaesthesia of all kinds, everything easy and comfort-oriented--because Bush and his goons have produced a police state already, and a lot of people apparently are going to have to have their asses kicked to find out they may not like that all that much. Not that they haven't already had their asses kicked--some of them are so dumb they don't even know it.

[eRobin]

Yeah, 2006 is a target even after a Kerry win. Man-on-Dog Santorum has to go.

[lightning]

Ok, you got me thinking. And writing. It got too long for a comment. The result is here.

Scary. Nasty. If enough of these things actually happen, we're looking at the end of America as we know it. If Georgie wins, I sincerely hope I'm very wrong.

Hey, it's Haloween!

[Jason]

Very simple. If Bush wins, the drive for impeachment starts November 3.

What's sauce for the goose, as I have said before, is sauce for the gander.

[Riggsveda]

I agree with Jason. In fact, I made a vow to myself that if Kerry loses, so does the country, and I will do everything I can to help impeach the bastard. There are two movements afoot to do so, one started by Ramsey Clark.
The things Bush's Republicans have done so far are only a prelude to the horrors they'll unleash in the next 4 lame duck years. Already they have done economic and diplomatic damage so deep it will take a generation to reverse. And if we can't stop the takeover of their plutocracy in the Senate, House, and courts, the worst will come after Bush. Social safety nets will be hamstrung or destroyed, the working class will lose even more protections and economic ground, the poor will slide into Dickensian misery, real education will be left only for the well-off, air and earth will poison us even more, and the burden of paying their fair share to support the nation will be lifted almost entirely from corporations and the wealthy. We can't afford to throw in the towel and hide our heads after Nov 2, whether we win or lose. There is so much work to do. Who is going to do it, if we don't?

[Matt McIrvin]

If Bush wins, maybe he won't have to destroy liberalism for good: some of you guys could destroy it for him, just by giving up. Look at you: you're crushing your own spirits. Something amazing has happened this year; the Democrats have gotten their act together and constructed a political organization that didn't really exist before now. This is a network that can keep pushing.

Come on: to the extent that this is Armageddon, it's been going on for a long time. The death camps are not going up soon; the proto-fascist tendencies are there, but they can be stopped; the only way to believe that your neighbors are all as eliminationist as Ann Coulter is to avoid talking to your neighbors. Don't you want to keep the death camps from going up? This wouldn't be like giving up on Germany in 1933, it'd be more like giving up on America in 1968 or '72. I know that a lot of people did that or wanted to do that, but things got better because people kept trying.

Push forward on all available fronts. Americans are not congenital idiots, any more than any other people are. This was never our only shot, just the best one. Try to take back Congress; try to impeach Bush if we can make the case; the whole works.

[delagar]

What Matt said.

Also, the Rethugs are themselves doing what they can to divide their own house -- Lots of Republicans aren't any happier with the Christian invasion of our liberty and the Far Right ditto and the fiscal irresponsibility than we are. The Republican party may itself be headed for the same sort of split that divided the democrats at the end of the 60's. Once that happens, we can pick up the pieces.

[Steve]

Simple...

If in two-three years the economy is still tanking and Iraq is an even worse mess, I'm getting about 20 bumperstickers that say "Don't blame me, I voted for Kerry." The read-between-the-lines-message is "Dear fellow Americans: You stupid idiots! What were you thinking! You had a chance to fire this guy!"

Okay, I'm kidding....

But, on a positive note, it is coming down to the wire...still neck and neck...and a huge turnout favors Kerry...and the big story this week should be that the incumbent Bush has less than have of America behind him...NOT a good sign.

[Patrick (G)]

If Bush were to win, even in the face of massive turnout from Democrats, soured independents, soured republicans ( 1 million gays, Arab-Americans, Cubans, principled conservatives, etc.), expatriates, angry first time voters, etc.

It would mean our electoral system is now an utter and complete fraud.

And if they can pull it off this year, they can keep on pulling off the fraud in 2006, 2008, indefinitely really, just like the PRI, until/unless they crash and burn some other way (which is rather more likely than a 60+ year reign).

You can hang around if you want, but me, I'd quietly liquidate dollar assets and leave the country (and not to Canada).

Now this isn't the likely scenario, but it's a scenario that I can't rule out just yet.

[Patrick J. Mullins]

Patrick (G)--I think that is right on the money. This is the last chance, or the Republicans will consolidate their ability to steal.

Except--that I think their own ability to crash and burn, as you call it, is also very likely. And this could definitely bring about a European Union which is finally become strong, because Europe is only finding the Bushies more malodorous by the day. It is impossible to believe that Europe will cooperate with a Bush government, and every reason to believe that New York, in particular, will be attacked again. (Such an attack on New York--which truly hates Bush more than any other place--would not be seen as anything other than an 'opportunity' for the Bushies to 'bring the rest of the country together' in their cheap, sentimental way.) The US will have proved itself to be an essential failure if Bush is re-elected. The main reason is that Bush policy ignored 9/11 except for using it as a means to proliferate a deformed foreign policy that could make it look like it knew how to play with an erector set. The nation itself will have ignored the reality of 9/11 as well if it reelects this nightmare--today Dowd referred to the 'demented vice president,' the kind of language needed in the last few minutes of this race.

And it has not been pointed out enough that Bush's various delays on 9/11 were followed by a 4-day delay in getting to New York. He should have been here the next day.

It is ingenuous to think that a Bush victory would not be proof of a national burnout and the death of American democracy. It may not be like Hitler's Germany, but it is far worse than '68 or '72. At worst it will be incredibly tragic, at least abysmally embarassing, as the U.S. will then be temporarily a 'powerful loser' before then really losing power.

[Jeremy Osner]

Thanks for this -- I've been increasingly filled with dread over the past two weeks or so and picturing myself spiraling into the pit of despair after Bush won/stole -- obviously this is irresponsible and self-defeating, but it is difficult to keep in check. Every little bit of reinforcement from outside helps.

[Mabus]

You guys are lucky....at least you only expect disaster if Bush wins.

I expect one disaster if Bush wins and another if Kerry does. Guess that's how it works when you're a poor social conservative...It puts me in mind of the parable of the cowardly soldier. He didn't want to fight for either side, since he might get killed, so he put on the pants of one uniform and the shirt of the other. After the battle was found shot in the chest from one side and in the rear from the other.

But then, it's a parable about compromise, and I don't put too much stock in it.

[Patrick (G)]

mmm,
No, getting rid of Bush is only the first step back from the brink. It may not be enough.

[gazould]

Oh, thank you, Fred. That was just what I needed to hear. I'm going to listen to Waterdeep on my iPod tomorrow while I'm in line at the polls, and if I have to listen to them for the next two years, I will, and I'll read you and Real Live Preacher and buy t-shirts with slogans on them and read poetry and treat it like my full-time job to keep hope alive.

[cjmr]

gazould--

what you said!

[corbiegirl]

Bush is not a true conservative -- he's a "Credit Card Conservative".

Look, if Bush wins, he's going to have to deal with the horrible mess he's made in Iraq and at home. There's a massive groundswell of discontent from what I view as the old-line true conservatives (fiscal conservatives who are also socially more libertarian) who see Bush's neocon crowd as taking us down the wrong path, and fast. I think that would only get worse as they see the deficit getting even larger. Moreover, the old-line conservatives were never interventionists abroad. If anything, they were isolationists. They're also not very happy with the intrusiveness of Ashcroft's Justice Department. They'd like nothing better (though they won't say it aloud) than to see the neocons thrown out of the party. Another four years might lead to a real rift in the party, if it hasn't already -- I know of at least a few of these old-line Republicans who are voting for Kerry. (Keeping fingers crossed that there are more...)

It'll be interesting to see what a Kerry win will do to the Democratic party. The war in Iraq could get pinned on him, much as Vietnam became Nixon's War. I'd rather see him handling it than Bush, of course, because Bush has mismanaged it at every turn and can't admit to his mistakes. Kerry's constituents either a) want us to leave NOW or b) want us to finish the job properly. He can't make them both happy. I'm glad he's promised to try to do a better job and not just walk away -- that'd be disastrous. But it's going to be, to quote Bush, "a very hard job".